Does your rule actually Set Field's Value for the proper field? Is the destination field made with the proper data type (number), and are you sending a number or text? Are you sure the If statement is truly being met? By that, I mean is the value in your Rule the _exact_ same value as the first field. For instance, if your value for Texas is TX, but your rule says Texas, then it doesn't match.
Such errors in logic are usually very simple and a case of overlooking the obvious.