It used to be that if we set a content type as the default and re-linked the existing XML, they would use that content type. But I have a client using Office 365 where we just tried re-linking some forms, and that did not work. He's had to go through and manually associate the forms with the content type (can also be done via Power Shell) and then we will use the relink view to correct the href in the XML. So - I think I would try the following in a test library:
- Create a simple test template that submits to a library, publish it
- Fill out and submit a couple forms so you have some test forms in the library
- Make an obvious change to your test template, publish it as a content type
- Change your test library to use content types, set your newly published content type as the default
At this point, your new forms will use the form published in step 3. I think your original template will still be available in the library, however, and that the test items created in step 2 will still open with that original template.... worth a try?